Test and Optimise: What to Do in October and Early November Before Black Friday

Black Friday is won in October.

Not on the day. Not in the week. In the quiet weeks before, when the auction is calmer and every test costs less. The brands that win on 27 November walk in already knowing which hook stops the scroll, which creator moves product and which offer pays for its own ads.

This guide covers calls one and two of our Black Friday game plan: Test in October, then Optimise in the first half of November.

The problem: Black Friday week is a bidding war

 
Every brand piles in at the same time, chasing the same thumbs. Costs climb, and untested ads burn the most.

How much costs climb depends on whom you ask. Some benchmarks put Q4 CPM increases at 30% to 65%, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday close to double the rest of the year, while others suggest 20% to 40%. The direction is the same either way.

Retailers are also starting earlier. FNB reported that in 2024, spending in the week before Black Friday rose 25%, up from 7% the year before, with promotions released sooner again. By the time the date arrives, shoppers have already been deciding for weeks.

So the question is not whether to spend in peak week. It is whether you spend on things you already know work.
  

October: Test

Test your hooks

 
Start this week. Take one hero product and launch three to five versions of the same ad where only the opening changes. Same body, same offer, same call to action. That way, when one wins, you know why.

The first two seconds decide whether anyone sees the rest, which makes the hook the cheapest and most valuable thing you will ever test. Five angles worth trying:

• Problem: open on the frustration your product solves.
• Proof: a result, a before-and-after or a real customer reaction.
• Deal: lead with the offer.
• Curiosity: a question or an unexpected visual.
• Creator voice: someone talking straight to camera in their own words.

Judge them on hold rate (how many people watch past the first few seconds), click-through rate and cost per result. Views alone will lie to you. A hook that earns attention but no clicks is entertainment, not conversion.
  

Test your creators

 
Brief three or four creators with the same product, the same objective and the same deadline, then compare like for like. You are looking for three things: an audience that matches yours, content that feels native to the feed, and the ability to make people act.

Ask each creator for a few variations rather than one polished video. Those spare cuts become your fresh creative in Black Friday week, when your first ads start to tire.

Test your offers

 
South African shoppers are spending, but carefully. PayJustNow describes a more intentional, disciplined Black Friday, where people buy but do not overextend. A bare percentage off gives them very little reason to choose you over the next brand shouting the same number.

Test a straight discount against three value offers:

1. Bundle it: group products into a deal that feels bigger than the sum of its parts.
2. Upgrade it: offer the better version for a small top-up.
3. Add to it: include a free extra with purchase.

Do the maths before you fall in love with an offer

 
Your break-even ROAS tells you how much revenue each R1 of ad spend must bring back before you make a cent. The formula is simple: one divided by your margin after the discount. This break-even figure is the foundation of Q4 budgeting. Use figures excluding VAT, and count every cost per order: product, packaging, delivery subsidy and payment fees.

Here is how a discount and a bundle compare for the same serum:

The bundle gives the shopper a bigger headline saving in rands, earns you more per order and needs less from every ad to break even. That is the kind of offer that survives a bidding war. Set your target ROAS comfortably above break-even so there is room for actual profit.

Early November: Optimise

Kill what flopped

 
Anything that has spent a fair amount without clearing break-even gets switched off. A useful rule of thumb: if an ad has spent two to three times your target cost per purchase with nothing to show for it, it is not going to surprise you. Testing only pays if you stop funding the weak.
 

Remix what nearly worked

 
A near-miss is not a loser. It is a remix waiting to happen:

• Strong hook, weak clicks: keep the opening, sharpen the offer or the call to action.
• Weak hook, strong clicks: keep the body, test a new opening.
• Strong all round: recut it shorter, try it in another creator’s voice and build variations now.

Winners tire too, because creative fatigue pushes costs up and slows delivery. The remixes you make in early November are the fresh creative you swap in during Black Friday week.
 

Lock in your creators

 
The best South African creators book out before November. Hold dates in October, then confirm the creators your tests favoured, in writing, by 6 November: dates, deliverables, usage rights and how long you can run their content as ads.
 

Rehearse your TikTok LIVE

 
LIVE is where Black Friday attention turns into action, so treat it as a show, not a stream. Plan four things: hosts (who is on camera and who backs them up), run-of-show (a clear order, led by your proven winners), offers (timed drops that give people a reason to stay) and moderation (one person owning comments, with answers to common objections ready).

Here is a 60-minute run-of-show you can steal:

One South African reality check: until TikTok Shop is live here, viewers cannot check out inside the stream. Make the path to purchase impossible to miss. Show a short, memorable URL and an offer code on screen, update your link in bio, and have your moderator repeat both in the comments every few minutes.

Rehearse at least once. Check lighting, audio and connection, and confirm stock so you never promote something you cannot ship.

Why early November is the sweet spot

 
Gupta Media’s analysis of 2022 data found that TikTok CPMs dipped in early November while shopper intent was already rising. That is one year of data, so check it against your own account. But it supports the whole logic of this plan: learn while it is cheap, then spend when it counts.

Your calendar

Not sure you are on track? Run through the five warning signs before you go any further.

Get a second opinion

Onboarding with GrowthCharter closes on 6 November. Our free Black Friday Readiness Audit checks your hooks, creators, LIVE plan, offer and checkout, and tells you what to fix first.